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CVR ENERGY INC (CVI)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 was weak on reported metrics due to Coffeyville’s planned turnaround and unplanned January downtime, plus a $112M unfavorable RFS mark-to-market, driving net loss of $105M, GAAP EPS of -$1.22, and EBITDA of -$61M; adjusted EBITDA was $24M and adjusted EPS was -$0.58 .
  • Versus S&P Global consensus, CVI materially beat on revenue ($1.65B vs $1.39B*) and on normalized/adjusted EPS (-$0.58 vs -$0.88*), while EBITDA missed (-$61M actual vs -$9.5M*), reflecting downtime and RFS headwinds (Values retrieved from S&P Global).
  • Q2 2025 guidance was raised for petroleum throughput (160–180kbpd) and renewables throughput (16–20MM gal), lowered for turnaround spend, and signaled no planned refinery turnarounds until 2027, setting up better operating leverage into driving season .
  • Dividend remains suspended for Q1, but management reiterated an intent to delever and consider dividend resumption as cracks improve; jet fuel and distillate recovery projects aim to lift capture and reduce RIN exposure in H2 2025 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Renewables delivered a positive margin and EBITDA: renewables margin of $16M ($1.13/gal) and EBITDA of $6M; adjusted renewables EBITDA was $3M, aided by higher D4 RIN and LCFS pricing and improved feedstock basis .
    Quote: “Despite the loss of the BTC, we generated positive adjusted EBITDA in the renewable [segment] primarily driven by increased RIN prices and reduced feedstock basis.”
  • Nitrogen fertilizer strength: EBITDA $53M on $143M sales, ammonia utilization 101%, and gate ammonia prices up 5% YoY to $554/ton, underpinned by strong spring demand .
  • Execution on refining projects: tie-ins completed for Coffeyville distillate recovery (target ~+2% distillate yield) and jet fuel initiative to enable up to ~9kbpd by end-Q3, positioning for margin uplift and reduced RIN burden .

What Went Wrong

  • Coffeyville downtime drove Petroleum losses: Petroleum segment EBITDA of -$119M and adjusted EBITDA of -$30M; total throughput fell to ~120kbpd from ~196kbpd YoY .
  • RFS volatility: $112M unfavorable RFS mark-to-market burdened results; net RIN expense (ex-MTM) was $27M in the quarter, with average RIN prices rising ~25% YoY .
  • Cash burn and FCF: cash decreased by $292M in Q1 and free cash flow was -$285M, reflecting turnaround and working capital build during downtime .

Financial Results

Consolidated headline metrics vs prior quarter and prior year

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Net Sales ($USD Billions)$1.833 $1.947 $1.646
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)-$1.24 $0.28 -$1.22
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)-$0.50 -$0.13 -$0.58
EBITDA ($USD Millions)-$35 $122 -$61
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$63 $67 $24

Results vs S&P Global consensus (Q1 2025 and Q4 2024)

MetricQ4 2024 EstimateQ4 2024 ActualQ1 2025 EstimateQ1 2025 Actual
Revenue ($USD Billions)$1.846*$1.947 $1.391*$1.646
EPS Normalized ($)-$0.625*-$0.13 -$0.884*-$0.58
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$17.6*$122 -$9.47*-$61

Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Note: EPS Normalized aligns to adjusted EPS from company materials.

Segment breakdown (Net sales and EBITDA)

SegmentQ1 2024 Net Sales ($MM)Q4 2024 Net Sales ($MM)Q1 2025 Net Sales ($MM)
Petroleum$1,722 $1,755 $1,477
Renewables$33 $93 $66
Nitrogen Fertilizer$128 $140 $143
Consolidated$1,863 $1,947 $1,646
SegmentQ1 2024 EBITDA ($MM)Q4 2024 EBITDA ($MM)Q1 2025 EBITDA ($MM)
Petroleum$171 $72 -$119
Renewables-$4 $3 $6
Nitrogen Fertilizer$40 $50 $53
Consolidated$203 $122 -$61

KPIs

KPIQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Total Refining Throughput (bpd)195,792 213,703 120,377
Refining Margin ($/bbl)$16.29 $8.37 -$0.42
Adjusted Refining Margin ($/bbl)$10.46 $6.45 $7.72
Direct OpEx ($/bbl)$5.78 $5.13 $8.58
Renewables Throughput (gpd)75,657 278,557 155,943
Renewables Margin ($/gal)$0.65 $0.79 $1.13
Ammonia Utilization (%)90% 96% 101%
Gate Prices: Ammonia ($/ton)$528 $475 $554
Gate Prices: UAN ($/ton)$267 $229 $256

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (from Q4’24 release)Current Guidance (Q1’25)Change
Petroleum Total Throughput (bpd)Q2 2025n/a160,000–180,000 n/a
Petroleum Total Throughput (bpd)Q1 2025120,000–135,000 Actual: 120,377 (reported) n/a
Petroleum Direct OpEx ($MM)Q1 2025 vs Q2 2025$95–$105 $105–$115 Raised
Petroleum Turnaround ($MM)Q1 2025 vs Q2 2025$150–$165 $15–$20 Lowered
Renewables Throughput (MM gal)Q1 2025 vs Q2 202513–16 16–20 Raised
Renewables Direct OpEx ($MM)Q1 2025 vs Q2 2025$8–$10 $8–$10 Maintained
Nitrogen Ammonia Utilization (%)Q1 2025 vs Q2 202595–100% 93–97% Lowered
Nitrogen Direct OpEx ($MM)Q1 2025 vs Q2 2025$55–$65 $57–$62 Raised
Total Capital Expenditures ($MM)Q1 2025 vs Q2 2025$44–$63 $56–$69 Raised
DividendQ1 2025—No cash dividend Maintained suspension

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 & Q4)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Regulatory/legal (RFS/SRE)Aggressive pursuit of Wynnewood SREs; elevated RIN expense; EPA denial stay sought $112M unfavorable RFS MTM; First Circuit stay for 2023 obligations; push for decoupling D4/D6 Continued focus; legal tailwinds possible
Tariffs/macro demand2025 cautiously optimistic; inventories below 5-year avg; closures support cracks Mid-Con gasoline/diesel inventories below 5-year avg; concerns tariffs may weigh; cracks surprisingly not higher Improving fundamentals, tempered by policy
Capture & margin initiativesPlan for jet fuel, distillate recovery tie-ins; alkylation project progress Coffeyville tie-ins done; jet up to ~9kbpd by end-Q3; alkylation to remove HF acid and lift premium gasoline Execution progressing; H2 uplift expected
Renewables/credits (BTC/PTC)BTC expired; hesitant to invest without clarity; pretreater improves basis Positive adjusted EBITDA; will book 45Z only with clarity; PTC potential ~$2M (could be higher) Operating at 5kbd; cautious on subsidy risk
Dividend/leverageAdded term loan, liquidity up; delever target ~2.0–2.5x mid-cycle; dividend considered as market strengthens No Q1 dividend; aim to reduce debt before resumption; board evaluates quarterly Balanced delever vs return of capital

Management Commentary

  • “Our results were impacted by the planned turnaround at Coffeyville… and an unfavorable mark-to-market impact of our outstanding RFS obligation.”
  • “With the turnaround at Coffeyville now completed, we are well-positioned for the upcoming driving season, and we currently have no planned turnarounds at either refinery until 2027.”
  • “During the turnaround at Coffeyville, we completed tie-ins for the initial phase of the distillate recovery project… we plan to… enable us to make up to 9,000 barrels a day of jet by the end of the third quarter.”
  • “We remain fully willing to participate in the renewable space, but cannot invest additional time and capital without further assurance the government will support the businesses it created.”
  • “You’ve heard me say many times, we’re a dividend machine… our goal… is to pay down this additional debt that we took on, get back to normal and start dividend at that time.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Demand/Cracks: Management sees supply/demand tightening with inventories below 5-year averages; cracks surprisingly not higher, with tariff uncertainty a near-term weight .
  • RFS structure: Strong push to decouple D4 from D6 to reduce distortions; elevated RINs increase pump prices; management urges policies to minimize RIN prices .
  • Renewables PTC (45Z): Company awaits clarity on qualifying sales and credit value before booking; ballpark ~$2M, potentially higher; hedging and basis improvements aided Q1 margins .
  • Coffeyville turnaround: Extended due to hydrotreater incident and winter conditions; potential insurance claim under consideration; ramp to full rates expected through Q2 .
  • Strategy/Consolidation: Economies of scale matter; CVI open to diversification beyond PADD II but disciplined on valuation (bid-ask wide) .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025: Revenue beat ($1.65B actual vs $1.39B*), adjusted EPS beat (-$0.58 actual vs -$0.88*), EBITDA missed (-$61M actual vs -$9.5M*). Drivers: Coffeyville downtime, RFS MTM drag, partially offset by Renewables and Fertilizer strength (Values retrieved from S&P Global).
  • Q4 2024: Revenue beat ($1.95B actual vs $1.85B*), normalized EPS beat (-$0.13 actual vs -$0.62*), EBITDA well above consensus ($122M actual vs $17.6M*) (Values retrieved from S&P Global).
    Implication: Street underappreciated Q1 top-line resilience but overestimated EBITDA given operational/RFS factors; models likely need higher RIN headwinds and ramp timing, offset by improved Q2 throughput and seasonal cracks.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term setup improves: Q2 guidance lifts throughput and slashes turnaround spend; with no planned turnarounds until 2027, operating leverage should expand into driving season .
  • Capture enhancement underway: Distillate recovery and jet fuel capability can lift margins and structurally reduce RIN obligations from diesel-to-jet shift over H2 2025 .
  • RFS volatility remains the swing factor: $112M Q1 MTM underscores earnings sensitivity; legal developments on SREs and policy direction will be catalysts .
  • Renewables pragmatic stance: Positive adjusted EBITDA despite BTC expiration; 45Z recognition awaits clarity—limit capital at risk until subsidies are durable .
  • Fertilizer tailwinds: Strong utilization (101%) and rising ammonia pricing bolster segment cash flows and diversify earnings .
  • Balance sheet focus: Q1 FCF -$285M due to turnaround/working capital; management prioritizes deleveraging before dividend resumption, but open to restoring payouts as cracks improve .
  • Trading lens: Watch Q2 throughput ramp, RIN price trajectory, Group 3 2-1-1 crack trends, and progress on jet/diesel yield projects for upside to capture; policy headlines on RFS/SRE are risk/reward inflection points .